Polonia mon amour

- finlandizzazione dell’Ucraina?  Ukraina – na własne życzenie – może się upodobnić do sąsiedniej Białorusi. Gospodarczo jest ona tak zależna od Rosji, do tego stopnia przyjęła rosyjskie standardy, że nie może wybić się na pełną samodzielność. Nie wiadomo, czy Ukraina jest od wczoraj sfinlandyzowana. Ale na pewno wykonała krok w tę stronę + Suwerenność Ukrainy oddana za 90 dolarów
- L’accordo fissa lo status quo o è già una virata verso est? (si chiede la stampa polacca). Nei commenti si tratta solo di un antipasto: il bello deve ancora venire: prossimo passo = offensiva economica: Mosca  farà sua l’energia ucraina (atomica ed elettrica), l’industria aerea e i cantieri…
- Su tutti i quotidiani italiani le foto del Parlamento ucraino e della rissa scatenatasi ieri, allorché i deputati erano chiamati a gratificare l’accordo sottoscritto dal Presidente filorusso Yanukovich con la Russia: prevede uno sconto sul prezzo del gas del 30 per cento in cambio del prolungamento dell’affitto per la base navale di Sebastopoli, dove staziona la flotta russa, per altri 25 anni dalla scadenza del 2017, cioè fino al 2042. Lanci di uova, fumogeni, colluttazioni, mentre il presidente del Parlamento veniva protetto con degli ombrelli. L’Ucraina ha ottenuto 100 milioni di dollari all’anno per l’affitto della base. E questo – sottolinea La Stampa – ha fornito l’occasione per una differenziazione tra il Presidente Medvedev e il primo ministro Putin. Medvedev: il prezzo è “alto, ma non impossibile”. Putin: per questa somma sarei disposto anche a mangiarmi Yanukovich, nessuna base militare può costare tanto. Segnalato da RASSEGNA ITALIANA, di Ada Pagliarulo e Paolo Martini
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VEDI anche il VIDEO: Ukraine, Russia MPs Approve Black Sea Deal  - The Russian and Ukrainian parliaments have ratified a deal that will keep Russia’s Navy based in Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula until 2042, as thousands protested outside Ukraine’s parliament building against the accord. More 
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Base contre gaz : en langage clair, cela s’appelle un échange de bons procédés. Moscou et Kiev ont annoncé, mercredi 21 avril, un double accord : l’Ukraine prolonge d’au moins vingt-cinq ans le bail de la flotte russe stationnée à Sébastopol, en Crimée, bail qui devait expirer en 2017 ; de son côté, la Russie réduit d’environ un tiers le prix du gaz qu’elle livre à l’Ukraine. Moscou engrange là tout le bénéfice de l’arrivée au pouvoir, en février à Kiev, du nouveau président ukrainien, Viktor Ianoukovitch, un homme soucieux de mettre fin aux relations tumultueuses avec Moscou qui avaient marqué la présidence de son prédécesseur Viktor Iouchtchenko, considéré comme un ami de l’Occident….
“La situation doit être vue dans le contexte d’une sorte de dégel avec la Russie : le phénomène est perceptible avec les Polonais, avec les Etats-Unis, et avec l’Europe”, dit un diplomate européen. “Avoir de bonnes relations avec les Russes, ou avoir de bonnes relations avec les Européens, cela n’est pas antagoniste, surtout si les relations entre les Russes et les Européens s’améliorent”, assure un autre diplomate. Le compromis entre Moscou et Kiev sur le prix du gaz ne devrait pas, estime-t-on à Bruxelles, remettre en cause l’accord sur la modernisation des infrastructures de transit, négocié en 2009 entre le précédent gouvernement et la Commission européenne, au grand dam de la Russie, qui n’avait pas été associée aux pourparlers. Certains Européens estiment même que Moscou pourrait être associé d’une façon ou d’une autre à la modernisation de ses équipements.
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VEDI la rassegna di European Press Review of 28/04/2010
MAIN FOCUS Russian poker over Black Sea
Amid violent commotion the Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday extended the lease for the stationing of the Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea until 2042, in exchange for a reduction in gas prices. This gives Russia a dangerous amount of power over its neighbour, some commentators write. Others say the military agreement won’t last long.
Gazeta Wyborcza – Poland – Annexed by Russia  – For the daily Gazeta Wyborcza, the huge tumult on Tuesday which accompanied the Ukrainian parliament’s extension of the lease agreement for the Russian Black Sea fleet marks the beginning of the end: “Ukraine is sinking into conflict and internecine war. In such a state it will be difficult to save the country from its economic woes. It will also be difficult for Ukraine to move closer to the EU, although this is really what all the key political forces on the Dnieper are after. Events have shown that the affirmations of the politicians in Kiev are nothing but empty words. Ukraine can move closer to its neighbour Belarus – according to its own wishes. Economically it is so dependent on Russia that it has even adopted Russian standards. The country is incapable of true sovereignty. It’s an open question whether Ukraine wasn’t simply annexed by Russia yesterday. Whatever the answer it certainly took one step in that direction.” (28/04/2010)
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Berliner Zeitung – Germany – Moscow’s carrot-and-stick policy is shortsighted
The controversial military agreement with Ukraine won’t bring Russia many advantages, the left-liberal Berliner Zeitung concludes: “One only needs to look at Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenko. He has made it his purpose in life to demonstrate to the world his independence from Moscow each day. … Russia has tried without success to integrate its neighbouring country through multilateral organisations. However the labours of multilateralism are not an area in which Moscow excels. The ODKB military alliance exists on paper only. … And so Moscow keeps on trying with bilateral agreements. … The agreement with Kiev is one such successful deal. But even that is not a sure bet. It’s patently obvious that President Viktor Yanukovych wanted to outsmart his country by rushing the deal through the ratification procedure. But this is not the way to form lasting alliances, at least not in a democracy.” (28/04/2010)
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Expansión – Spain – Russian deal affects all Europe
A scuffle broke out among MPs in the Ukrainian parliament during the ratification of an energy and military deal with Russia.The subject is polemic not just in Ukraine but affects all Europe, the business paper Expansión writes: “What happened yesterday in the Kiev parliament illustrates the country’s radical political polarisation, with the one side gravitated towards Russia and now represented by [President Viktor] Yanukovych’s recent election victory, and the other leaning towards the West, which comprises those who voted for [Yulia] Tymoshenko. This Ukrainian issue transcends borders and is central to the stability of Europe’s energy supplies. Ultimately, with this deal on the base in Sevastopol Russia is consolidating its long-term position in the Black Sea and using the energy factor as a vital variable for its strategic capacities.” (28/04/2010)
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The Independent – United Kingdom – Admirably efficient despite smoke bombs
Blows were exchanged in the Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday during a vote on allowing Russia’s Black Sea fleet to remain stationed in Crimea. The British parliament could learn a few lessons from the vote, which ended successfully for the government. “Eggs flew and smoke bombs were detonated. Brawls broke out around the chamber. The speaker, Volodymyr Lytvyn, had to be protected from projectiles by umbrellas. … Rarely has Carl von Clausewitz’s dictum that ‘war is a mere continuation of politics by other means’ seemed quite so close to being literally true. Yet the remarkable thing is that despite the chaos, the debate continued and the legislation that had prompted the battle was even successfully ratified. That’s admirable legislative efficiency in the face of adversity. Who says British politics has nothing to learn from our continental neighbours?” (28/04/2010)
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UCRAINA-RUSSIA: Il flirt Mosca-Kiev preoccupa l’Europa
PRESSEUROP, 28 aprile 2010
… l’avanzata russa in terra ucraina non si limita all’accordo militare-energetico… dall’arrivo al potere di Viktor Ianoukovitch, la lingua russa è sempre più in uso nel paese, nei media e all’università… “nell’era sovietica l’ucraino era una lingua discriminata, che si è riaffermata a poco a poco dopo il crollo dell’Urs. L’espansione dell’informazione russa è l’ultima cosa di cui l’Ucraina ha bisogno”.
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The fleet for gas – Ukraine strengthens its relations with Russia
The extension of the lease for the stationing of Black Sea Fleet in exchange for a reduction in gas prices will result in a further strengthening of the Russian influence on Ukraine and will limit Kiev’s sovereignty in security issues….  Conclusions:

• The deal reinforces and perpetuates the presence and influence of Russia in Ukraine. Kiev is de facto limiting its sovereignty in security policy. The chances of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO as a military alliance have been ruled out. The inclusion of Ukraine into the Russian area of security in the coming years is likely to be one of the main goals of Russian security policy. It could manifest itself as pressure on Ukraine’s accession to the Organization of the CIS Collective Security, considered by Russia as a counterweight to NATO.
• The agreement could lead to the strengthening of the Russian political, military and economic presence in Crimea. Thus, Russia holds an important instrument of pressure against Ukraine, which can be used should Kiev not agree to perform certain, (from Moscow’s point of view) strategic Russian interests in Ukraine. However, the short-term perspective shows that Russia may be interested in demonstrating the ability to cooperate, which may result in a reduction of the level of political and ethnic tensions in Crimea.
• The price of gas after the reduction, comparable with the average European prices, does not solve the problems of the Ukrainian economy, which can be dealt with only through structural reforms. At the same time, reducing the price of gas will improve the situation of public finances in 2010 and the following years.
• The immediate beneficiary of the agreement to lower prices is Ukrainian business – the chemical industry in particular, and partly the metallurgy industry. Similar gas prices as in 2009, however, do not give them an advantage over their competitors, and that is why the perspective of those industries will depend on their modernization.
• If the draft of the agreement on energy cooperation proposed by the Russian government is finally signed, it will limit the sovereignty of Ukraine’s energy policy and make cooperation with the EU impossible. It seems, however, that due to the interests of Ukrainian business, the position of the negotiators will be tougher and the Russian draft will be modified.
• The agreement is Russia’s biggest success in the region in many years. It provides clear confirmation of Moscow’s great possibilities to develop the security situation in Eastern Europe. If the strategic strengthening of Russia’s position in this region is accompanied by a further “washing out” of Western influence, it can be expected that Moscow will gain in confidence and have greater assertiveness against those countries which have so far attempted to pursue a policy independent of Russia in the security sphere (Georgia, partly Moldova).
• Combining military issues and economic cooperation in the negotiations and in the agreement legitimizes, in a specific way, Russia’s tactic of using economic pressure to maintain or strengthen its military presence in the CIS and in Eastern Europe.